Confirmation....

In a way, Fed is vindicated from even contemplated tapering the bond buying programme sooner than expected. Evidently, with the latest overwhelming US employment data, we are now in a relatively clear cut position where US is ready to wean off from QE whereas Eurozone is still languishing with potentially negative interest rate. Any doubt on the sustainability of the recent USD resurgence will be put to rest and the investment community is probably more convinced and ready to embrace this scenario (herd instinct). A stronger corrective rebound in currencies is now delayed. Just a sidetrack..... With the current development, it will be quite difficult to believe that XAUUSD (Gold) is ripe for another bull run, at least not before another leg lower. I will be updating on XAUUSD in the coming days since the second target has been touched in "Initial target hit, whatz next for XAUUSD?", 15 Apr 13.

CFTC COT Report: Speculator's accounts as of 25 Jun 13
EUR: +17,357 vs +20,030
JPY:   -61,462 vs -61,890

Asia order book:
Stop loss: 1.2750/46, 1.2940/50 ans 1.2975/80
Limit: 1.2750/46, 1.2805/00, 1.2940/50 and 1.3040/50

Europe order book:
Stop loss: 1.2745/40, 1.2790 and 1.2930/35
Limit: No noteworthy orders

One of the very rare occasions where these noteworthy orders changed that much.

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bearish for 1.2400
Minor trend: Down / Up (mildly bullish - corrective)

Technically, shorter intraday indicators have unwound from its o/s environment but longer intraday/daily are in extreme o/s territory. Shorter intraday momentum indicator is suggesting consolidation but longer intraday/daily are still pointing firmly lower. Taking other technical signals into consideration, I see spillover momentum in E$ to test briefly below 1.2800 before a rebound. Expected trading range between 1.2760/70 to 1.2860/70. Stronger support at 1.2750 and resistance at 1.2920/30.

E$ Daily chart - Last line of defence....