Bear to bull trap....

It seems like there was this deliberate effort to draw in more speculative shorts in euro this week. Monday's price action (bearish engulfing candlestick pattern) set up the first bear trap and encouraged a further build up of buy stops above 1.3100. The second bear trap was the initial sell-off post the weaker than expected German ZEW number, first falling to 1.3028 before turning around sharply. A series of notable stop loss orders were triggered up to 1.3170 and 1.3180. Suspected large option barrier at 1.3200 was tripped too as high printed was 1.3202. Finally, I feel vindicated as I have been mentally prepared for this squeeze for the past few days, except that it surpassed my target marginally. As of now, market attention may soon turn to the sell stops that have been building up since the past weeks.
Expect tight sideway consolidation for time induced weakness in price action as supports move higher to form resistance.
Fundamentally, with much anticipation of Fed pulling the plug on further QE earlier than expected, E$ should trade softer into tonight's Beige book at 2am (Sin/HK Thu).

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bullish
Minor trend: Bearish (Probably completed the 5 wave and has increased the risk for downside from here)

Asian order book:
Stop loss: 1.2990, 1.3020/00, 1.3110/00, 1.3140 and 1.3205
Limit: 1.3020/00 and 1.3220/28

Technically, intraday indicators are in the o/b zone though not extreme. Shorter intraday oscillator indicators are indicating upside momentum waning and price action suggest consolidation between 1.3150/60 to 1.3200/10. Longer intraday oscillator indicator is still pointing higher but if correction takes E$ below 1.3165 and consolidate for an hour or more, it will weaken the technical picture for the bulls. A potential scenario for today: E$ correct lower to 1.3150/60 before higher again for its last peek at 1.3205/20 before it starts it hunt for sell stops down to 1.3060/70. Adjust your stop and take profit levels accordingly. Lastly, don't forget your trailing stop.

E$ Daily chart - 1.3220/30 should provide strong resistance for this round