After spending yesterday within the inner band, E$ broke out into the expanded range, ref "Not time yet....", (22 Apr Mon). Choppy price action normally characteristic when within the full moon zone (starting tomorrow) is already happening today. Stronger French Flash Manufacturing PMI number took E$ to the day's high of 1.30838 and half an hour later, the weak German Flash Manufacturing PMI sent E$ reeling to the day's low so far at 1.2973. The reported large sell stop below 1.2970 seems to be the magnet for now but like what I mentioned yesterday, I am sceptical and not too sure if its trying to draw in more sellers for the "buyer" to accumulate. If this level holds and rebound above 1.3000 in the next 3 hours or so, the probability for a move back to 1.3040/50 will be high. However, if 1.2960/70 goes, we may see a quick drop to the next strong support at 1.2920/30 (61.8% fibo ratio). Either way, I can't get too bearish around current level.
Europe order book:
Stop loss: 1.2950/40, 1.2970 and 1.3130
Limit: 1.3195/00
Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bullish
Minor trend: Bullish (but must await technical confirmation)
Technically, intraday indicators have all slipped into o/s territory though not extreme yet. With the sharp sell-off earlier, intraday oscillator indicators are all pointing firmly lower. Currently, market is supported by the DMA21 (red) which happened to be the 50% fibonacci retracement level. Expect consolidation between 1.2970 to 1.3010 for now. Probability for another test on the downside is high as long as the momentum indicators are pointing down. For me, I will stay patient for the next 2/3hrs for confirmation of changing momentum or take at chance to buy if E$ falls through to 1.2920/30 with a tight stop and take profit around 1.3030/40.
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| E$ Daily chart - Touched 50% fibo ratio |
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| E$ Daily chart - Finding support at the DMA21 (red) |
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