Friday 12 April 2013

Bulls on steroid starting to look tired...

E$ bulls continue to reinforce its intermediate trend as it broke above March's high of 1.31339 to print 1.3138 before falling back to consolidate just above the DMA50, which sits at 1.3100 today. Thursday was a tricky day as it first broke Wednesday's low and then rally to break its high at 1.3122. For the minor trend, somehow I feel the risk for the next 200 points move is more on the downside than up. Strong resistance stands at 1.3160/80.

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bullish (reinforced by breaking March's high of 1.31339 yesterday)
Minor trend: Up / Down (nearing tail end of recent rally, awaiting for longer intraday momentum to turn down)

Europe order book:
Stop loss: 1.2990, 1.3060/40, 1.3142/51, 1.3170 and 1.3180
Limit: 1.2980, 1.3080/70, 1.3142/51 and 1.3195/200

Technically, intraday indicators are approaching o/b level but definitely not close to extreme levels. Shorter intraday oscillator indicator are mixed but the longer intraday ones are still pointing higher (a good reminder for one who may get overly bearish). I normally prefer to await the longer intraday and hopefully daily momentum to turn down before committing a bigger notional. For today, expected range 1.3000/20 to 1.3120/30 (would love to fade into rally if near 1.3160/80).

E$ 4-Hourly chart - Bearish divergence further developing

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