Thursday, 11 April 2013

Bulls running out of steam...

E$ extended it rally to touch a high of 1.3122 before giving up most of its gains to close at 1.3070, lower than its open price at 1.3082. This price action has reinforced the possibility of a completion of the 5th wave and increased the probability of a correction lower from here as guided in "Bearish divergence but bulls are still stubborn", 9 Apr Tue. At this moment, 1.2930/40 (50% fibo ratio) coincides with the DMA21 and should provide strong support. But E$ bulls must be patient and watch the momentum before attempting to buy the dip. For now, I placed a small probability for a deeper correction back to 1.28ish.

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bullish
Minor trend: Bearish (correction of recent rally)

Asian order book:
Stop loss: 1.3005/990, 1.3050/40, 1.3130 and 1.3160
Limit: 1.2980 and 1.3150

Technically, shorter intraday indicator is in the o/s zone and counter-directional consolidation is needed to unwind this condition though longer intraday is still close to o/b level. Shorter intraday oscillator is pointing to a consolidation which at current level, would suggest more upside bias. Longer intraday oscillator is still pointing higher. Expected range 1.3100/10 to 1.2970/80. Looking to sell into rally with a tight stop above yesterday's high. Another level to look to sell into is at 1.3140/60 with tight stop above 1.3180.

E$ 2-Hourly chart - 50% fibonacci ratio level at 1.2930/40 provides strong support
Parallel in my iMac gave me problem yesterday as my trading system runs only on Windows platform. Bought a Windows based Samsung all-in-one desktop just for my trading now with iMac as backup.





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