Range trade....

Amid a lacklustre and illiquid environment, market remains focus on the heightened worries about debts and fiscal problems in the eurozone. A weak weekly close at 1.28168 should put recent low of 1.2751 as target for retest this week with lots of economic data releases to provide the impetus. Other than the tension in the Korean peninsula, we have ECB rate announcement on Thursday and US employment numbers on Friday. As mentioned earlier, E$ remains technically weak considering where it closed for the week and for the month. We should see initial sell pressure but that being said, E$ may start to find a base from the recent sell-off in April.

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bearish for 1.2650/80 (still within bearish channel, below DMA200)
Minor trend: Bearish

CFTC COT non-commercial speculator accounts revealed that euro net short position has increased to -49,095 vs -24,787. Net short jpy was reduced marginally to -89,149 vs -93,763.

Asia order book:
Stop loss: 1.2700, 1.2750, 1.2850 and 1.2900/10
Limit: Barrier at 1.2700

Technically, intraday indicators are slipping into o/s zone though still far from extreme. Shorter intraday oscillator indicators are still suggesting range consolidation between 1.2750/60 to 1.2840/50 for now, though the longer intraday momentum is still pointing lower. With today's environment, barring any major random news, trade above range with tight stops.

E$ 8-hourly chart - Too many centres off for Easter, lacklustre drift