E$ defying gravity for now....

Last Friday, E$ consolidated mostly within Thursday's range but pushed higher to close at 1.3111 despite a weaker environment for commodity related assets like AUD$, oil, copper and more notably, XAUUSD which plummeted through the $1,500 psychological support to close around $1,485 with a follow through this morning to $1,429.08 low so far. What are the implications? Resurgence of the USD or risk-off? Whatever the reason, one must stay vigilant and alert as turning point in any asset groups can be a prelude for the rest of the financial markets.

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bullish
Minor trend: Nearing tail end of recent rally. Trend technical tool suggest higher downside risk for the next 200/300 pips.

CFTC COT report revealed that non-commercial speculator accounts have reduced their net euro short position to -50,858 vs -65,701. Net short JPY dropped very marginally to -77,697 vs -78,171.

Asian order book: (No updates yet)

Technically, shorter intraday indicators are in neutral zone while the longer one is just coming off the o/b level. Shorter intraday oscillators are pointing to consolidation and longer intraday has just started to turn down which increased the risk for downside vis-a-vis the upside. At this moment, I am mentally prepared for an exhaustive spike towards MA200 (Blue) at around 1.2940/50 (typo error) 1.3140/50 before lower. Stronger resistance stands at 1.3160/80. Expected range today, 1.3000/20 to 1.3140/50. Prefer sell rally strategy.

E$ 8-Hourly chart - MA200 resisting amid first sign of bearish divergence