Intermediate trend changed but....

Weaker than expected US job data gave E$ another boost in an already technically bull-up environment, rallying to a high of 1.30394 before easing to close the week at 1.2993. As guided in "Initial sign of market reversal, 5 Apr", a close above 1.2940/50 is definitely a welcome sign for the bulls as it has formed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, a relatively reliable reversal signal. Price action was impulsive and this goes inline with the bullish primary trend. Intermediate trend is confirmed to have flipped from bearish to bullish as a result of E$ breaking above the bearish channel and closing above the DMA21 and 200. Daily and weekly momentum have turned up suggesting scope for 1.3400/3500 level to be retested. Having said that, I must warn that minor trend can still be a counter-directional sharp correction (can be as deep as back to 1.2750/60) before higher again. Probability of occurrence may not be high but it cannot be discounted totally. The key fundamental drivers this week will be Wednesday's FOMC meeting minutes (Thu, 11Apr 2am Sin/HK) and Eurogroup meeting from Friday.
Spillover upside momentum should push E$ higher in the earlier part of the week before we spend the rest of the week testing the downside with a small probability of a recovery on Friday.

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bullish
Minor trend: Down / Up

CFTC COT report revealed that non-commercial speculative accounts added to their net euro short position at -65,701 vs -49,095. This was the largest net euro short position since 27 November 2012. For the Yen, speculative accounts on the contrary trimmed their net short position to -78,171 vs -89,149. Above behaviour seem to suggest that market will be vulnerable to short squeezes in the euro and a continuation in the already sharp rally in USDJPY toward Y100.

Asian order book:
Stop loss: 1.2890 and 1.2970
Limit: 1.3050 and 1.3100/15

Technically, intraday indicator is approaching o/b level with still scope for more upside. Shorter intraday oscillator is suggesting consolidation but the longer intraday is still pointing firmly higher. Expected range 1.2920/40 to 1.3090/3110 (expanded 1.3130/40) on first test. Can't get overly bullish when above 1.3100 for this round.

E$ Daily chart - Broken out and up for the next few weeks