Friday 5 April 2013

Initial sign of market reversal....

E$'s initial rally was on the back of ECB leaving rate unchanged, followed by a much higher than expected number of weekly jobless claims out of the US. But Draghi's dovish comment gave market the perfect excuse to push E$ to 1.2745, flushing a series of sell stops. E$ then consolidated off the low for awhile before the short squeeze came in 2 waves with no fundamental news to support. The final wave shot to a high of 1.2948, clearing another series of buy stop orders. This kind of price action normally happens during the full moon zone though.
After last night's remarkable rebound, many are quick to change their E$ view from bearish to bullish though I feel can still be premature.

Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: In the process of flipping from bearish to bullish. Stayed above bearish channel and DMA200. Technically more bullish if weekly close above 1.2890 or even better above 1.2940/50.
Minor trend: Consolidation lower before higher

Europe order book:
Stop loss: 1.2850/40, 1.2890 and 1.2975/85
Limit: 1.2950 and 1.3050

Technically, intraday indicators are still unwinding from overnight's o/b condition. Intraday oscillator indicators at this point of writing is pointing higher but if price continues to consolidate lower, it may turn to consolidation which if E$ is at current level, it would mean more downside bias. However, daily momentum has turned higher. Expected range 1.2840/50 to 1.3000/30 on first test. For today, I have to admit that I don't have a good feel of the market rhythm.


E$ Daily chart - Pierced through bearish channel and above DMA200

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