Do note that we will be trading into the full moon zone starting from Wednesday. As of now, I do not have any information of any major risk event/s during that period except for Wednesday's German Ifo Business Climate number due out at 4:00pm (Sin/HK).
CFTC COT report: Speculator accounts showed a net euro short position of -29,764 vs -50,858. Spec accounts had a net yen short of -93,411 vs -77,697. Since July 2007, the largest net yen short was at -94,401 contracts which we are very close to now.
Asian order book:
Stop Loss: 1.2970, 1.3000 and 1.3125/35
Limit: 1.2990 and 1.3000
Primary trend: Bullish
Intermediate trend: Bullish
Minor trend: Mixed (consolidation mode with no breakout in sight for now)
Technically, shorter intraday indicators are in neutral zone while the longer intraday ones are just turning up from o/s levels. Intraday oscillator indicators are gradually converging to suggest further range consolidation but still premature of a breakout at this point in time. Expected inner band range within 1.3000/20 to 1.3100/20 with expanded band 1.2960/80 to 1.3140/60. Clearly market is drifting around the neutral zone and as far as my trading philosophy is concerned, getting in now is as good a probability as tossing a coin. To be honest, there is no opportunity for good R/R payout today. Trading strategy has to switch to very short term momentum pips scalping when nearer band extremes.
When there is no clarity with minor trend, fall back on the intermediate.
E$ 2-hourly chart - Rejected at 61.8% correction level |
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